Storm Isaac Strengthening; On Track for Florida

Tropical Storm Isaac, scheduled to become a hurricane on Thursday, is headed toward the Florida Keys.

And what could become Tropical Storm Joyce is right behind him.

But, for the time being, Tropical Storm Isaac is east of Puerto Rico with winds of about 45 mph. Forecasters say it is expected to continue to bring tropical storm-force winds as well as torrential rain to the islands of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

“People in the Windward and Leeward islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday with torrential downpours, gusty thunderstorms and building seas,” says Dan Kottlowski, head of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, who also warns of flash-flooding and mudslides.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Isaac could reach Category 1 status, with winds of 75 mph, sometime mid-Thursday in the warm water to the south of Puerto Rico.

Warm water is conducive to hurricane formation, as is low wind shear, which is also forecast.

The duration of NHC's forecast into Sunday keeps Isaac as a Category 1 hurricane with winds reaching 90 mph as the storm again reaches even warmer ocean water between Cuba and Florida.

“Strengthening appears likely,” the NHC says. Isaac would reach Category 2 status when winds hit 96 mph.

Another storm system behind Isaac has nearly a 100 percent chance of become a tropical cyclone, according to the NHC. The tenth named storm of the hurricane season would get the name Joyce.

AccuWeather adds an interesting, if not ominous, note. Seven of the last 11 storms with a name that begins with the letter “I” have been retired—including ones as recently as Irene a year ago and Ike in 2008.

Storm names are retired when they produce enough destruction that reusing the name would be “inappropriate for obvious reasons of sensitivity,” says the NHC.

Isaac's formation and apparent track toward Florida comes as Hurricane Andrew is remembered.

Andrew, a Category 5 storm that struck south of Miami on Aug. 24, 1992, would cause an estimated $50 billion in losses today.

The total value of insured coastal property in Florida is about $2.5 trillion, and the state leads the nation in the number of flood policies.

Should Isaac stay on track, Florida's last-resort insurer, Citizens Property Insurance Corp., would likely feel the brunt of losses. The state-run entity is Florida's leading property insurer with more than 1.6 million policies. It has about 20 percent of the homeowners' insurance market in Florida.