Hartwig Talks Up ‘New Trajectory of Growth’ for Economy, Industry

For a while, Insurance Information Institute President Robert Hartwig has been telling anyone who'll listen that we will not experience a double-dip recession and that global crises would not derail recovery in the economy.

New evidence supports his theory, but insurers may be slow on the uptake, he says.

Insurance-rate renewals are up. Commercial rates rose just under 1 percent in 2011's third quarter and 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter—after 30 straight quarters of price declines.

But more than that, Hartwig says there are opportunities for insurers beyond waiting for rate increases.

The insurance industry “needs to not just ride the rising tide in,” he says. “There is a new trajectory of growth in the American economy.”

Uncharacteristic industries not typically involved in economic rescue are leading the way, paving a road to opportunity for insurers that recognize the trends, says Hartwig, who recently gave a presentation at the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies' Claims Conference in Savannah, Ga.

Energy, natural resources, agriculture, health care, transportation and infrastructure are at the beginning stages as the country's newest growth engines, Hartwig says—“and many insurers would find that they are underexposed to these sectors.”

The largest growth area may be due to the country's aging demographic and the consequent greater need for care. Because of insufficient returns, insurers may have shunned writing Workers' Compensation in the health-care industry, for example, but continuing to avoid this sector is “removing yourself from the largest growth area in the next 10 to 20 years,” Hartwig predicts.

With new technology and discoveries, the energy sector is undergoing a renaissance that calls for new distribution networks, large facilities and transportation. A renewed commitment to energy will become a “potent driver of exposure growth,” as the price of energy will be pushed down to levels not seen in decades.

Hartwig sees an unemployment rate of below 8 percent by the third quarter of this year. When more people return to work, they'll purchase more vehicles and reverse a trend of older cars on the road, he adds.

“This is not a traditional hard market,” adds Hartwig, “but there are ongoing opportunities.”