NU Online News Service, June 2, 3:47 p.m. EDT
The team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University, led by William Gray, increased their early season forecast for storms, echoing recent predictions by others, saying there is more than a 70 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall in the United States.
The Colorado State University team today increased its predictions and is now calling for a very active 2010 season in the Atlantic basin with 18 named storms predicted.
The forecast is based on much warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and cooling tropical Pacific conditions that will likely transition into a weak La Nina by mid-season.
Of the 18 storms, the team now anticipates 10 hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Five are expected to develop into major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The scientists increased their forecast from April's prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Long-term (1950-2000) averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes per year.
"We have increased our forecast from early April, due to a combination of a transition from El Nino to current neutral conditions and the continuation of unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures," said Mr. Gray, who is in his 27th year of forecasting at Colorado State. "We anticipate a well-above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."
The team also updated its U.S. landfall probabilities, which are calculated based on historical landfall statistics and then adjusted by the latest seasonal forecast.
"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent, compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach. "We expect that the current trend from El Nino to neutral conditions will persist and that weak La Nina conditions will develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October).
The team's probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on various portions of the U.S. coast:
o A 51 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula. The long-term average is 31 percent.
o A 51 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville. The long-term average is 30 percent.
o A 65 percent change of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean. Average for the last century is 42 percent.
The team debuted a forecast for Caribbean basin activity with this prediction. The Caribbean looks to be very active in 2010, with overall tropical cyclone activity approaching levels experienced in 2004 and 2005.
Mr. Klotzbach noted this hurricane season, if it occurs as predicted, could have an impact on the cleanup of the oil spill in the Gulf.
"If the storm tracks to the west of the oil, there is the potential that the counter-clockwise circulation of the hurricane could drive some of the oil further toward the U.S. Gulf Coast," Mr. Klotzbach said. "We do not expect that the oil slick will have much of an impact on any tropical storm or hurricane that passes over the area."
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