Hurricane season is here, and with it comes uncertainty. Even amidst a bounty of other industry distractions, hardly a day goes by that a weather expert's opinions, reasoning, and assorted statistics doesn't cross my desk. They are filled with abbreviations like ENSO and SST, and phrases like multi-decadal signals and La Nina effects. All try to explain why this year will or won't be a busy year for storms. Generally, they incite more debate than anxiety.
I'm alternately impressed and skeptical of these meteorological authorities. Impressed because I imagine that making substantiated guesses on something so intrinsically random seems likely to elicit only one response: criticism. (That is something with which those in the adjusting field could empathize.) So when you're willing to make yourself a target, willing to put the apple on your head and ask Bill Tell to load up his crossbow and take his best shot, consider me impressed.
I'm skeptical because, well, an accurate storm-season forecast still feels like fool's wisdom. Even if a forecaster is right, is there ever a way to prove it? What is the up side? Bragging rights? It's a Catch-22 situation that this month's contributor from the National Weather Service is forthright in addressing. Above all else, he believes the primary benefit of making storm-season predictions is to encourage preparation amongst homeowners and businesses. I can applaud that kind of honesty, and I think there is value in the going through the exercise.
This issue of Claims also addresses legal uncertainties involving, of all things, Chinese drywall. I first heard about this potential problem several months ago and wasn't sure if it was fish story or fact. Then a friend told me about how his family had to move out of their Florida home because of an unbearable stench that they described as rotting eggs. When I read the proposed abstract that preceded the writing of this month's cover story, how the drywall might be "off-gassing" toxins into the air, it confirmed to me that the problem could be long-tail in nature and worth exploring.
As if the people of the Gulf Coast haven't been through enough, there is now reasonable suspicion that a lack of building materials stemming from a housing boom — remember that? — combined with massive reconstruction efforts after the busy storm seasons of 2004 and 2005 led builders to import substandard sheetrock. So we may be adding noxious drywall to the list of products imported from a country that already has a less-than-impressive track record of putting lead in children's toys, melamine in baby food, and antifreeze in toothpaste.
The drywall situation reeks of chum in the water and is bound to create more headaches for insurers and claim professionals, who might one day soon have to revisit the scars from those devastating seasons. As we begin yet another season of uncertainty this month, I'm sure it's the last thing we want to happen, for ourselves and most importantly, for our policyholders.
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