Forecasters Make Odds on U.S. Hurricane Hit

NU Online News Service

The Colorado State University forecast team said today that the chance of a major hurricane hitting U.S. shores is better than 50 percent this year during a generally moderate hurricane season.

Their outlook calls for 12 named storms to form in the Atlantic with two of them expected to become intense hurricanes. The number is less than their December forecast.

The forecast team of William Gray and lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach based their prediction on the potential for a weak El Nino ocean atmospheric event and an observed cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 54 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Mr. Klotzbach in a statement. "We are calling for an average hurricane season this year--about as active as the average of the 1950-2000 seasons."

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Six of the 12 storms predicted for the Atlantic basin are forecasted to become hurricanes, and of those six, two are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

This forecast has been reduced from the early December prediction of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The long-term averages for these events are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001 seasons, the team said. The activity for these five seasons was about average, and the researchers predict the 2009 season will be in line with the level of these five years.

The team also predicted:

o A 32 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

o A 31 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

o The team also predicted average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

Additional prediction information is available at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.

NU Online News Service, April 7, 3:59 p.m. EDT

The Colorado State University forecast team said today that the chance of a major hurricane hitting U.S. shores is better than 50 percent this year during a generally moderate hurricane season.

Their outlook calls for 12 named storms to form in the Atlantic with two of them expected to become intense hurricanes. The number is less than their December forecast.

The forecast team of William Gray and lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach based their prediction on the potential for a weak El Nino ocean atmospheric event and an observed cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 54 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Mr. Klotzbach in a statement. "We are calling for an average hurricane season this year--about as active as the average of the 1950-2000 seasons."

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

Six of the 12 storms predicted for the Atlantic basin are forecasted to become hurricanes, and of those six, two are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

This forecast has been reduced from the early December prediction of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The long-term averages for these events are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.

These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001 seasons, the team said. The activity for these five seasons was about average, and the researchers predict the 2009 season will be in line with the level of these five years.

The team also predicted:

o A 32 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent).

o A 31 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent).

o The team also predicted average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

Additional prediction information is available at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane.