Direct Hurricane Strike On New York City Rated Unlikely

PRINCETON, N.J.--There is little if any risk of an intense hurricane making a direct hit on New York City and flood hazard maps overstate the potential risk for flooding in the city, a catastrophe modeler declared at a conference here.

Robert Muir-Wood, chief research officer for Risk Management Solutions, made his assertion during a meeting last week at Princeton University titled "Cat 3 Hurricane in the Northeast: Willis Insurers' Summit."

Using as his prime example what has become known as the New England Hurricane of 1938, also dubbed the "Long Island Express," which devastated the region, Mr. Muir-Wood said hurricanes that hit Florida and the Gulf Coast region with high winds well above 111 mph (the lowest speed for a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) would be unlikely to strike the Northeast.

He reasoned that an intense Category 3 hurricane cannot survive the colder waters off the northeast coast and loses intensity.

The only storms with enough hurricane force wind punch that could make it this far north would be a hybrid--part hurricane and part extra-tropical storm. These storms are characterized as very fast moving storms, sometimes as fast as 30 mph (the Long Island Express was said to have moved as fast as 70 mph) and also covering a much larger area. The storm's characteristics also have all the wind intensity on the right-hand side, or leading edge of the storm, while the left side is less intense and in transition.

Because of these characteristics, the brunt of the storm would be on Massachusetts and other New England states, sparing the New York City area.

"The flood hazard maps are all wrong," said Mr. Muir-Wood. "Someone needs to start over again. They are overstating the risk they have" adding that the current maps extend flooding too far inland. He said someone who develops the maps needs to use appropriate storm tracks and windfields.

During his lecture, Mr. Muir-Wood criticized Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science for AIR Worldwide, for his assertions that an extra-tropical storm's destructive power is more wide-spread with a combination of wind and rains causing intense flooding. Mr. Dailey said a slight variation of course would be the difference between a storm hitting New York and missing it.

Mr. Dailey defended his rationale for storm prediction, saying that he stood by his analysis.

During his earlier presentation, Mr. Dailey noted that few hurricanes have ever reached the Northeast, putting the chances of an intense storm reaching this far north at less than 1 percent. However, he said the inland damage from such storms has been underestimated and needs to be taken into consideration in the underwriting of risk.

David Smith, senior vice president, and John Mangano, research scientist from Eqecat, also presented during the program, with Mr. Smith noting that Northeast hurricanes are extra-tropical storms that move faster than South and Gulf Coast storms. Mr. Mangano noted that since the 1960s the historical data on hurricanes has improved in both analysis and dissemination.

Earlier in the day, Brian Colle, a professor at Stony Brook University in Stony Brook, N.Y., noted that the New York City area can be easily flooded and cause devastating disruptions from a combination of storm surge and rise in water level as a result of global warming.

He said the occurrence of such a storm was not a question of if it is going to happen but when.

(This story was updated at 11:15 a.m. on March 31)