When the 2007 hurricane season came to a close at the end of November, storm forecasters at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University must have felt some confliction over the events that occurred — or more specifically, the ones that didn't.
While much storm activity was predicted, the fact that not much actually played out seems more like a reason for celebration, not dejection. Unless, of course, it's your job to make those predictions. Therefore, there was a fair amount of defeat in the forecasters' summary report for 2007, in which they admitted that, for the most part, their predictions failed to reflect actual events.
"Our 2007 seasonal hurricane forecast was not particularly successful," said Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, who co-authored several hurricane prediction reports and updates throughout the year. "We anticipated an above-average season, and the season had activity at approximately average levels."
In their preseason prediction report for the 2007 season — made on April 3 — the pair predicted that there would be 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and five "intense" hurricanes (those that reach Category 3-status on the Saffir-Simpson scale). They affirmed those numbers on May 31, the day before the 2007 season began.
At the time, the predictions seemed plausible given the early formation of Tropical Storm Andrea — a storm that formed almost a month prior to the official start of hurricane season — and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed on June 1. Other forecasters agreed, reiterating that the slow 2006 season was the exception, not the rule. For instance, forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that the North Atlantic region had "an 80 percent chance of an above-normal season." NOAA expected 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 hurricanes of Category 3-strength or higher," according to NOAA administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher, who made his remarks in May 2007.
When the 2007 season ended, it had produced 14 named storms, six hurricanes, and two "intense" storms that reached Category 3 or higher. Out of those storms, only one tropical depression, two tropical storms (Barry and Gabrielle), and one hurricane (Humberto) made U.S. landfall. The latter was the only to cause significant insured losses, which totaled $500 million. Better luck next year?
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