Risk Management Solutions has confirmed its modeled hurricane activity rates for 2008 to 2012 following an elicitation with a group of the world's leading hurricane researchers. Results of the elicitation suggest the average risk of landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for the next five years–known as the medium-term view–remains at approximately the same level as has been predicted for the past two years, which is significantly above the risk averaged over the long term.
Therefore, medium-term hurricane activity rates in the 2008 version of the RMS U.S. Hurricane Model will remain unchanged from the existing 2007 version. The current activity rates lead to estimates of average annual insured losses that will be 40 percent higher than those predicted by the long-term mean of hurricane activity for the Gulf Coast, Florida, and the Southeast, and 25 to 30 percent higher for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastal regions.
Seven experts from North America, Europe, and Asia participated in the annual elicitation in Miami last month. This approach to estimating hurricane landfall rates allowed leading researchers to review a range of statistical models representing alternative perspectives on potential hurricane activity in the Atlantic, including the possibility for decreasing activity over the next five years. The experts then were asked to weight the various models to provide their best estimate of the landfalling hurricane risk in the U.S. and Caribbean from 2008 to 2012.
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