Companies planning for a flu pandemic must realize how much they stand to lose if they are unprepared, according to medical and risk management executives.
Their observations came during a Web seminar sponsored by Chicago-based insurance broker Aon, "Influenza: Exploding The Myths."
Addressing the issues companies will face with the outbreak of a pandemic were Dr. Myles Druckman with International SOS, a medical risk management solution provider; Dr. Gisele Norris, associate director, Aon health care alternative risk practice; and Steve Pearce, director, crisis management and business continuity, Aon Corp.
Dr. Druckman said the world is overdue for a pandemic, which traditionally occurs every 30 to 40 years. The last took place in the 1960s. While the current concern is focused on the avian flu strain, clinically referred to as H5N1, he said the world is not prepared for a severe outbreak of the flu.
There is an understanding of the flu risk among those who gained experience from the SARS outbreak (severe acute respiratory syndrome) back in 2003, in Asia, when flights were quarantined and travel to infected areas was stopped, he said. They have been making plans, but most of the world has not, Dr. Druckman noted.
Currently, the danger from the avian flu is limited, with very rare reports of human-to-human contact. However, the mortality rate is significant–60 percent of those infected die–and when it does reach a stage where there is human-to-human contact it will "herald the pandemic influenza," said Dr. Druckman. It will also mean a prolonged crisis that could last from six to 18 months.
What companies will be faced with is planning for how to keep their critical operations running when their workforce is severely depleted by the illness.
"A pandemic will occur, but no one can say how severe it will be," said Dr. Norris. "By conducting exercises that show you how the impact of a pandemic may affect your business, you'll be able to look at various responses and critically assess which are the most valuable to your business, or as Steve [Pearce] said, how much are you prepared to lose."
A midlevel infection of influenza, she said, could mean 89,000 to 207,000 deaths in the United States and economic disruption amounting between $71 billion and $166.5 billion, not to mention the millions of people who will fall ill.
Battling the disease will mean many people isolating themselves either from illness or fear, or the need to take care of loved ones who have fallen ill. This in turn will mean workforce disruptions, which could spell supply chain disruptions as manufacturers do not have the people to do the work.
One strategy, Dr. Norris said, calls for designing supply plans that will rely on second- and third-tier suppliers to keep an operation going. There will also be effects on sales as demand is stifled due to illness.
Businesses will also need to explore insurance programs that will shift financial risk, but she noted that there are few available to deal with the fallout from the avian flu.
Mr. Pearce emphasized that the most important thing for any business to do is develop a continuity strategy to deal with the ramifications of a pandemic. He said little help can be expected from government as it will be primarily concerned with caring for individuals.
"We are on our own," he said, referring to businesses.
Leadership in this crisis will be key, he continued, and people will need to have trust in business leaders that they have a plan in place to deal with this issue.
"A pandemic is inevitable," he said. "How bad it will be is the question."
A replay of the seminar is available at: www.aon.com/us/about/events/web_seminar.jsp
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