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This business of insurance requires a certain level of clairvoyance, and no one owns a crystal-clear crystal ball. What we do own is historical data on the impact and aftermath of large-scale disasters – and like most of what’s in the rearview mirror, that image is sharp yet fleeting. Some may forget the lessons of the last disaster too soon, while others cast past events into stone as the basis for managing future catastrophes. What’s worse, however, is when a disaster prompts knee-jerk reactions that do more harm to the market than good.

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