Filed Under:Risk Management, Weather Risk

One early forecast calls for below-average hurricane season

This satellite image taken Oct. 1, 2015, and released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows Hurricane Joaquin. (Photo: NOAA via AP Photo)
This satellite image taken Oct. 1, 2015, and released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows Hurricane Joaquin. (Photo: NOAA via AP Photo)

Phil Klotzbach, a leading hurricane expert from Colorado State University, is predicting El Niño conditions may linger to help thwart the 2016 hurricane season.

His early prediction is based partly on the fact that frigid waters flowing out of the North Atlantic Ocean may limit activity as warm seas that feed energy to storms cool, according to the Palm Beach Post.

Klotzbach, shared his thoughts Monday at the week-long National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific.

Official 2016 hurricane forecasts come in April

Klotzbach won't deliver his official hurricane forecast until April. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also weeks away from releasing its official 2016 hurricane forecast, but meteorologists have been buzzing about whether the end of El Niño will leave the U.S. more vulnerable to storms.

The 2015-2016 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, is expected to weaken by the summer.

“2016 will be a good test since we won’t have El Niño,” said Klotzbach, who believes the Atlantic may have entered a climatic pattern of fewer hurricanes. “It would definitely increase confidence that we are moving out of an active time for storms.”

For the full story, see "Early hurricane forecast calls for below-average season."

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