Forecasters Reduce Hurricane Season Outlook; Still Expect Above Average Activity

Two updated forecasts for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season slightly reduce the number of named storms expected this year, but there is no change in outlook for another above-average season.

The National Hurricane Center released its August update calling for an above average hurricane season of 13-19 named storms, including 7-9 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. In May, NHC forecast 13-20 named storms, including 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. The weather service says there is a 70 percent probability of each of the ranges of activity.

Factors causing the increased intensity are reduced trade winds over the Caribbean Sea and the tropical North Atlantic through September, which will influence cyclone activity in the Atlantic. Also, forecasters expect Atlantic sea surface temperatures to be slightly above normal.

Aon Benfield’s research unit Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) slightly reduced its prediction to 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. 

In June, TSR predicted 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes this season. Still, the season is poised to be stronger than the historic norm.

TSR says an average year produces 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three Category 3 and above hurricanes of sustained winds of 111 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. TSR scientists project that there is about a 50 percent probability the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index will be above-average, a 41 percent likelihood it will be near-normal, and a 10 percent chance it will be below-normal.

To date, four named storms have popped up in the Atlantic reaching tropical storm status and doing little damage. 

Comments

Resource Center

View All »

Leveraging BI for Improved Claims Performance and Results

If claims organizations do not avail themselves of the latest business intelligence (BI) tools, they...

Top 10 Legal Requirements for E-Signatures in Insurance

Want to make sure you’ve covered all your bases when adopting e-signatures? Learn how to...

Get $100 in leads with $0 down!

NetQuote's detailed, real-time leads have boosted sales for thousands of successful local agents across the...

The Growing Role of Excess & Surplus Lines in Today’s...

The excess and surplus market (E&S) provides coverage when standard insurance carriers cannot or will...

Increase Sales Conversion with this Complimentary White Paper

This whitepaper will share proven techniques - used by many of the industry's top producers...

D&O Policy Definitions: Don't Overlook These Critical Terms

Unlike other forms of insurance where standard policy language prevails, with D&O policies, even seemingly...

Environmental Risk: Lessons Learned from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate...

Whether it’s a chocolate factory or an industrial wastewater treatment facility, cleanup and impacts to...

More Data, Earlier: The Value of Incorporating Data and Analytics...

Incorporating more data earlier in claims lifecycles can help you reduce severity payments by 25%*...

How Many Of Your Clients Are At Risk Of Flood?

Every home is vulnerable to flooding. Learn four compelling reasons why discussing flood insurance with...

Gauging your Business Intelligence Analytics Capabilities and the Impact of...

Big Data, Data Lakes and Data Swamps, How to gauge your company's Big Data readiness....

PropertyCasualty360 Daily eNews

Get P&C insurance news to stay ahead of the competition in one concise format - FREE. Sign Up Now!

Advertisement. Closing in 15 seconds.