Lockton: Holes in Models Exposed by Superstorm Sandy

Catastrophe models will continue to be exposed by events like Superstorm Sandy because they can fail to contemplate all possible sources of loss, says Lockton Cos.

A report by Jeff Tennis, manager of catastrophe analytics at Lockton, says model deficiencies are visible “particularly for areas with a limited historical record,” but he adds it “would be naïve to fully discredit” these loss-prediction tools.

Tennis suggests simulations using the hurricane model by Risk Management Solutions (RMS) were not lacking in that the firm modeled 2,300 storms in the area where Sandy hit and 62 storms produced storm surge of 16-feet or greater—the surge height in some areas during Sandy, such as on Staten Island, N.Y.

However, Tennis says, the simulated storms to produce such a surge in the model were a Category 3 or greater. Sandy was a Category 1, and made landfall as a tropical storm.

"RMS claims its model represented Sandy's storm surge reasonably well, but has provided few details supporting this claim," Tennis says. 

Additionally, inland flooding in not captured by the RMS model, Tennis adds.

The models also miss the mark on indirect losses such those related to business interruption, which, in an area like New York, is a big driver of loss—maybe more so than direct losses.

The point is not that the models are useless. Tennis says models “are still a useful tool to evaluate ‘how bad bad can get.’”

The point is insurance professionals, “must recognize model deficiencies and supplement where needed.”

Read Tennis’ report HERE.

RMS says insured losses from Sandy will be between $20 billion and $25 billion. In a December interview with PC360, the modeler says Sandy verified its model’s approach to estimating damages from wind and from storm surge.

Catastrophe modelers AIR Worldwide and Eqecat also released insured-loss estimates from Sandy. AIR raised its estimate of insured losses from Superstorm Sandy to between $16 billion and $22 billion after releasing a much lower range very soon after the storm. Eqecat says insured losses will total $10 billion to $20 billion.

Industry executives and analysts have since predicted insured losses will at least reach the high end of RMS' estimate, if not exclipse the prediction.

Comments

Resource Center

View All »

Contractors General Liability Coverage 102

What is a prior work exclusion? Which option is right for my client? Why do...

Sign up today to get a 50% matching credit -...

Insurance marketing sometimes seems like it's a game of swings and misses, but we're here...

Guide: 5 Steps to Selling Cyber

Cyber risk and data security is on the agenda of every business owner and executive....

Citation Correlation

Do rigger and signalperson qualifications correlate with the cause of crane and rigging accidents? ...

Complete Guide to Electronic Signatures in Property & Casualty Insurance...

In property and casualty insurance, closing new business quickly is key. Learn how to leverage...

INSTANT ACCESS: Complimentary Sales Closer Questionnaires

Help property owners or managers compare your commercial residential property insurance coverage vs. the competition....

Determining Vacant Property Perils and Valuations

Are your clients fully covered for Vacant Properties? In this economic climate, your insureds may...

Risk Management for Law Firms

This package of 3 concise risk management articles offers straightforward content and practical suggestions law...

Guide: Top 15 E&O Risks-And How To Avoid Them

Accidents happen. But when it's an errors and omissions oversight, that accident can open your...

We'll Show You How to Reach Your Sales Goals

Whether you work alone or have a team of agents working for you, we can...

Risk Management Report eNewsletter

Identify problems involving emerging risks, reinsurance, and business interruption with help from Risk Management Report - FREE. Sign Up Now!

Advertisement. Closing in 15 seconds.