Filed Under:Markets, Personal Lines

Colorado State: Below Average Hurricane Activity Expected in 2012

NU Online News Service, March 22, 10:26 a.m. EST

A duo of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University says conditions favor a less active Atlantic hurricane season in 2012.

“The combination of a warming tropical Pacific and a cooling tropical Atlantic are leading us to think that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will have less activity than the average 1981-2010 season,” according to an update from Phillip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.

The qualitative forecast was released in advance of the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Fla. starting on March 26. A forecast based on mathematical formulas will be released April 4, they say.

The prediction based on the duo’s observations of conditions incorporates a cooling Atlantic Ocean over the last several months. Additionally, there is a “relatively high chance that El Niño will develop this summer and fall,” they say.

The El Niño weather pattern typically decreases hurricane activity because the wind shear it produces breaks up storm formations.

The weather phenomenon is important to hurricane prediction. In January, Klotzbach and Gray said chances were high for another active hurricane season in theAtlantic in 2012 if El Niño does not develop.

Accompanying the team’s most recent prediction is a warning: “We stress the need to realize that there is inherent uncertainty in seasonal [tropical-cyclone] prediction.”

“Hurricanes can make landfall in inactive seasons and do major damage,” they add. See hurricanes Alicia in 1983 and Andrew in 1992, the forecasters say.  

For 2011, the CSU forecast team had predicted that the hurricane season would be “well above average.” In June of last year, the team called for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes. In the end, the season produced 20 named storms, with seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Top Story

The 5 rules for winning over millennial customers

You know you'll have to master selling to millennials sooner or later. Here are the keys to this growing market.

CE & Training

One Low Price for Complete Access to All Courses

Choose from National Underwriter's complete library of courses available in your state to get the credits you need quickly and affordably. Take advantage of the Open Pass Package for only $49. Click here to start your training today!

More Resources

Comments

eNewsletter Sign Up

Personal Lines Pro eNewsletter

Critical insights into the personal auto, homeowners, and other consumer insurance markets to help P&C professionals stay informed – FREE! Sign Up Now!

Mobile Phone
         
Close

Advertisement. Closing in 15 seconds.