The Deepwater Horizon explosion on April 20, 2010 triggered one of the largest manmade catastrophes we have ever known. Nearly two years later, environmental recovery is underway and, according to some sources, so too is a staggering settlement.

Neither BP nor the U.S. Department of Justice has commented about any alleged negotiations; however, a leading financial analyst at Morgan Stanley expects the parties to enter a settlement under which BP may agree to pay between $20 and $25 billion as early as February.

According to The Telegraph, the man behind the theory is Martijn Rats, head of European oil research at Morgan Stanley. In a research note published Jan. 19, Rats estimates a 70- to 80-percent chance the two sides would agree on a deal regarding the civil and criminal charges.

As for the timing, Rats predicts a settlement may be reached “within weeks,” noting two key dates:

BP's full-year results on Feb. 7, 2012
The scheduled start of legal hearings in New Orleans on Feb. 27.

This massive settlement would represent nearly double the amount for which the company has taken a provision, ostensibly adding about $13 billion to BP's total payout, should Rats' prediction ring true.

Following the explosion, which killed 11 people, BP has reaffirmed its commitment to “recovery” in the Gulf Coast region and has repeatedly expressed a desire for settling on a sum that is mutually amenable.

No further details about these alleged negotiations are available, although some predict BP will grace the record books yet again—perhaps with one of the largest legal settlements in U.S. history.

Special Reports /

The $25B Question: Will BP Settle Soon?

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