The Atlantic storm Danielle has intensified into the second hurricane of the Atlantic season, but it later "unexpectedly" weakened Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The NHC said the storm--still a Category 1 hurricane--is forecast to regain strength over the next 48 hours, albeit slowly.
Catastrophe modeler AIR Worldwide said Danielle reached Category 2 strength before weakening early this morning to a Category 1.
According to catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS), Danielle strengthened into a hurricane late yesterday, less than 24 hours after forming into a tropical storm. RMS said the NHC official forecast was calling for Danielle to become a major hurricane--Category 3 or higher--by Aug. 25.
Then came the unexpected weakening. The NHC said, "The period of rapid intensification has ended with a thud." The hurricane ran into conditions to the east and west that eroded the eyewall, the NHC said, now calling for storm intensity at days four and five of its forecast to be just below major hurricane strength. "Only slow strengthening is indicated in the official forecast," the NHC said.
As of late this morning, the storm was located about 985 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west-northwest at just under 20 miles per hour. As the NHC reported yesterday, the storm is expected to turn further to the northwest over the next 48 hours.
RMS said that the system poses no immediate threat to land, with models predicting that the storm will remain over open water in the Atlantic Ocean over the next five days.
Further to the east, about 1,110 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, another system is moving west-northwest across the Atlantic Ocean at about 15 miles per hour. The NHC said the system has a high chance--90 percent--of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.
"Locally heavy showers and strong gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cape Verde Islands [off the coast of Western Africa] today, and interests in those islands should monitor the progress of this system," the NHC said.
In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank has formed but is expected to remain "well offshore" as it continues moving west-northwest parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, according to the NHC.
RMS, meanwhile, is tracking Tropical Storm Mindulle, located over the Gulf of Tonkin in the South China Sea, approximately 160 miles south of Hanoi, Vietnam. The system is classified as a moderate strength tropical storm, RMS said, and is forecast to weaken rapidly as it "begins to interact with Vietnam's land mass."
RMS said, "Vietnam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has reported heavy rain on the country's east coast as the system approaches. There is the risk of flash flooding and mudslides along and near the track of the storm in Vietnam and into Laos. The National Government of Vietnam has ordered the evacuation of people living in high-risk areas."
